How Long Will My Super Last in Retirement?

"How long will my super last?" is the fundamental retirement question. The answer depends on three things: how much you have, how much you withdraw each year, and what return your remaining balance earns. Small changes in any of these can shift your super runway by 5-10 years — which is why modelling multiple scenarios matters more than finding one "right" number.

Super drawdown by balance and spending

This table shows how long different super balances last at various annual withdrawal rates, assuming a 5% nominal investment return on the remaining balance:

Super balance	$40k/year	$50k/year	$60k/year	$70k/year	$80k/year
$400,000	12 years	9 years	8 years	6 years	6 years
$500,000	16 years	12 years	10 years	8 years	7 years
$600,000	21 years	15 years	12 years	10 years	9 years
$750,000	30+ years	20 years	16 years	13 years	11 years
$1,000,000	30+ years	30+ years	23 years	18 years	15 years
$1,250,000	30+ years	30+ years	30+ years	24 years	20 years
$1,500,000	30+ years	30+ years	30+ years	30+ years	26 years

"30+ years" means the portfolio is likely to sustain withdrawals indefinitely at that rate, assuming consistent 5% returns. In practice, returns are variable, which is why you should also test with 3-4% returns to see the downside case.

Why the return rate assumption matters enormously

The difference between a 4% and 7% investment return on a $750,000 super balance withdrawing $50,000/year:

Return rate	Years super lasts	Total withdrawals
3%	18 years	$900,000
5%	20 years	$1,000,000
7%	30+ years	$1,500,000+

A 4% difference in returns is the difference between running out at 78 and having super last until 90+. This is why the investment option you choose within super — growth, balanced, or conservative — has enormous long-term impact during retirement.

Minimum super drawdown rates

Once you start an account-based pension, the ATO mandates minimum annual withdrawals based on your age. These rates ensure super is drawn down over your lifetime rather than preserved indefinitely:

Age	Minimum rate	On $800k	On $1.2M
60-64	4%	$32,000	$48,000
65-74	5%	$40,000	$60,000
75-79	6%	$48,000	$72,000
80-84	7%	$56,000	$84,000
85-89	9%	$72,000	$108,000

The increasing minimum rates mean that even if you want to preserve super, you must withdraw progressively more each year. Plan your spending around these minimums — withdrawing more than needed and re-investing outside super may not be tax-efficient.

How inflation erodes your super balance

If inflation averages 3% per year, your $50,000 annual spending in today's dollars will need to be $67,000 in 10 years and $90,000 in 20 years to maintain the same lifestyle. This means your super is being depleted faster in real terms than the nominal numbers suggest.

A portfolio earning 5% nominal but facing 3% inflation has a real return of only 2%. At $50,000/year real spending from a $750,000 balance, the runway drops from 20 years (nominal) to about 17 years (inflation-adjusted). Always consider inflation when estimating how long your super will last.

Age Pension as a safety net

The Age Pension is available from age 67 and provides a floor of income for eligible retirees. As of March 2026, the maximum rates are approximately:

• Single: $1,116 per fortnight ($29,000/year)
• Couple combined: $1,682 per fortnight ($43,700/year)

Your eligibility depends on the assets test and income test. As your super balance decreases through drawdown, you may become eligible for a partial or full pension. This creates a natural safety net: the less super you have remaining, the more pension you receive. For planning purposes, this means your super does not need to last indefinitely — the pension catches you if your balance drops below the thresholds.

Strategies to extend your super runway

• Reduce spending in the first 5 years — the early years carry the highest sequence-of-returns risk. Modest spending reductions in years 1-5 can add years to your runway.
• Keep a cash buffer — hold 2-3 years of expenses in cash or term deposits within super. Draw from this during market downturns instead of selling growth assets at a loss.
• Choose an appropriate investment option — too conservative means your super does not keep pace with inflation. Too aggressive means higher volatility. A balanced or growth option is common for retirees under 75.
• Consider part-time work — even $10,000-$15,000/year from casual work in early retirement can extend your super runway by several years.
• Downsize your home — the downsizer contribution allows a one-off contribution of up to $300,000 per person from the sale of your home if you are 55+, boosting your super balance.

Using the calculator to model your runway

Set your current portfolio balance (use your combined super and non-super investments), annual spending target, and test different return assumptions. The calculator shows when each investment path reaches — or falls short of — your FIRE target, which is directly related to how long your money will last. Test at least two scenarios: an expected case and a conservative case with returns 2% lower.