ETF Assumptions for FIRE in Australia
ETF outcomes can look deceptively smooth if the assumptions are too generous. Use this page to set a realistic return frame and to understand what parts of the ETF result come from compounding versus tax drag.
Total return should be a long-run assumption
ETF total return is best treated as a long-run nominal assumption for scenario comparison. It should not be read as a short-term market call or a promise about what the next few years will deliver.
Contribution timing still matters
Even simple changes in when money arrives can shift the ETF path. If your savings rate is likely to change over time, compare a flat baseline with a staged contribution path rather than forcing all years to look the same.
Tax settings can narrow the gap
Dividend tax, CGT treatment, and salary context all matter. The app models these in a simplified Australian framework, which makes them useful for comparison but not a substitute for tailored tax advice.
Focus on repeatability, not only on the winning case
If the ETF path still reaches FIRE earlier or with a healthier downside profile after you trim expected returns, that is a stronger result than a win that disappears as soon as assumptions become slightly less optimistic.